One of the most intriguing aspects of the upcoming Eagles season is which version of Michael Vick will show up. He had an outstanding stretch for most of 2010, but followed that up with average-at-best play for most of 2011.
Vick's regression was troubling. Offensive turnovers were the biggest reason the team had such a disastrous campaign and Vick was the main culprit.
More than any other statistic, turnover margin indicates the success of an NFL team. In 2010, the Eagles won the division while finishing in the top five in the NFL in turnover margin. In 2011, the team finished tied for last in the league in that category and, predictably, had a terrible season.
From 2010 to 2011, Vick lost nearly twenty points from his QB rating. He went from being the fourth-ranked passer in the NFL to fourteenth, primarily because he threw more than twice as many interceptions in 2011 than he had in 2010.
In addition to his interception woes, Vick still ran effectively, but his rushing TD total decreased from nine in 2010 to one in 2011.
The reason this decreased production from Vick is so troublesome going forward is because in 2010, the NFL had not seen Vick in a starting role since 2006. Fans have to worry that Vick’s decreased effectiveness was due to other teams adjusting defensively to his unique style of play.
Vick’s performance in his first seven or eight games in 2010 was nothing short of miraculous, as he confused the opposition routinely. There was a sharp decline thereafter.
Then in the 2010 postseason, the Eagles were one-and-done. They lost a home playoff game in which Vick was pedestrian. The season ended, fittingly, on an ill-advised heave from Vick that was intercepted in the end zone.
The 2011 season saw a sluggish Vick struggle through the first half of the season, throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns. Then he got injured and missed three games. By the time he returned, the remaining four games were effectively meaningless.
So was it just a down year for Mike Vick? Was it a down year because he was plagued by injuries? If so, will he be able to stay healthy this upcoming season? The answers to these questions will determine if the Eagles made the right choice to give him a $100 million contract and hand the franchise over to him.
Some conflicting remarks from Vick himself have also clouded the issue. Ominous is Vick’s lack of recognition of his responsibility for the Eagles' lost 2011 season. He noted that he had to cut down his turnovers, and then said he didn’t think the Eagles fell short as a result of his turnovers.
Vick also said he knew he had to be more cautious in order to avoid injury, while at the same time noting that he only knew one way to play.
Andy Reid and the coaching staff have their work cut out for them to drill it into their quarterback that he has to stay healthy and protect the ball.
In a January 31, 2012 press conference, Andy Reid noted that Vick needs to stay healthy and limit turnovers.
Reid said at that time that Vick needed to study this offseason to accomplish these goals. Fans can only hope Vick has the work ethic to do just that. The Eagles' success in 2012 is more dependent on Vick’s health and ball security than anything else.
Jack Walden
1:05 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
I believe that teams have found a way to limit his effectiveness. They just keep hitting him every chance they get. After 4 or 5 games, he is just an ordinary quarterback. Andy needs to get an extremely competent backup if he wants to get to the playoffs this season.
Porterincollingswood
2:58 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
I look back now and think that teams just weren't prepared for him when he came back. They didn't have recent film and surely few believed he'd retained that speed and quickness. He also improved his passing touch that first season as a starter.
Now, its a different story.
J D IN TENNESSEE
4:29 pm on Wednesday, July 11, 2012
I agree with Jack. Mike Vick needs to mature his game. That is, trust his coaches and offensive line to do their jobs and play with in him self. Focus on where his talents are today ...not where his skills were back in college. Time to become a leader instead of trying to force plays. Otherwise..no one knows the plan on or off the field.
Mike Diviney
1:52 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
I agree completely. Vick needs to avoid hits in regular season games. He needs to save his running for important late-season games and the postseason. Since it's still likely he'll miss a couple games, backup QB is very important. I think Kafka will beat out Trent Edwards and I think they can win with Kafka in there. Foles will be an understudy.
Reed Rothchild
2:53 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Well said. Only time will tell, but hopefully the backup QB situation isn't a factor and Vick can play smart enough to stay healthy this season. Realistically though, the Eagles should have a backup QB that can play above and beyond the level of an "average" QB in case Vick is injured early in the season. Is Kafka or Edwards capable of leading a team to the playoffs and the Superbowl? It'd be a great story but I extremely doubt it. Go Birds!
Mike Diviney
3:08 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
I think Kafka is good enough for the team to win with him at QB. Can he "lead" them for a long stretch? Probably not. If that scenario arises it'll be up to the running game and D to lead them. Remember, the rest of the team was good enough to go 4-1 with Feeley in 2003. Reid did a great job with that and the rest of the team really stepped up.
Jeem
2:54 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
As long as the defense improves, the birds will be fine. I think some of vick's turnovers were due to tipped passes and just bad luck. But in many of those cases, if our defense had a clue, many of our turnovers would not have been as costly. This article should be titled, "eagles go as defense goes."
Mike Diviney
3:10 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
To say the D has to atone for all Vick's mistakes and from that determine they're the key to the team is backwards. Of course the D has to be better, but when the D is suspect like last year, it's up to the leader, the QB, the franchise to not put more pressure on them because they'll break. I do think the D will be stronger this year.
Mike Diviney
3:14 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Porter, I agree that the NFL has adjusted. However, the way he played in 2010 was, like you said, attributable as much to his passing touch as to his unique style. If he can get that back, he won't have to run as much, won't take as much punishment and the offense will hum. Up to the coaches to get him back there.
Phil McConkey
4:06 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
With Peters out (yes they got Bell but he's not Peters) I expect Vick to be on the ground more. Sincerely
JPP
Mike Diviney
4:14 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Have to compliment you on Phil McConkey. Losing Peters hurts, but Bell is solid. Also, since Vick is left-handed, the left tackle isn't on his blind side. Herremans will be protecting that like a brick wall.
Jeem
4:50 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Losing peters could have the greatest impact on Shady...
Mike Diviney
8:44 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
I think Shady will be as great as this season as he was last. It's not like they have a scrub taking Peters place and I think the rest of the line is as solid as Bell, if not more so.
Larry O'Doyle
5:55 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Mike Vick has regressed not only in his play but also in his humility. He claims responsibility for his part in last year's debacle then bristles at questions about what changes he plans to make in order to better protect the football going forward. I admire Vick's resilience and the composure he displayed during last year's tumultuous season but his rhetoric is starting to sound eerily similar to another dazzling talent from Newport News who used to rule the hardwood named Bubba Chuck. I wanna believe, but it's going to take a lot more than words of bravado to convince me. Prove it.
Matt Skoufalos
6:10 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Maybe he needs another (alcohol-free) sit-down with Tony Dungy.
Mike Diviney
8:46 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Brilliantly stated. No coach could ever convince Iverson to do what he needed to do. It's up to Reid to do with Vick what no one could accomplish with AI or the result will be the same- ZERO rings.
Porterincollingswood
7:05 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
If we can get a guy like Colt McCoy for a late round pick that would ease my concerns somewhat. He's not that great, but he's been a leader of a big-time team at Texas and he's been the starter in the NFL.
Don't see it with Kafka, don't want it with a guy who thinks he's a star on the bench like Vince Young.
Mike Diviney
8:50 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
Not a bad idea, but I honestly think Kafka is as good as Colt McCoy. He knows the offense better than anyone besides Andy Reid. Wouldn't be opposed to McCoy, but I don't see it happening and I think Kafka can get it done.
Larry O'Doyle
9:56 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
The only thing good about Colt McCoy is his name. He has developed a strange, cult following seemingly composed of fellow undersized people featuring toddler-sized hands. Trent Edwards was brought in to push Kafka who has proven to be, at the very least, competent. Foles appears to possess all the physical tools necessary to be a successful quarterback and will be force-fed into rapid development as the current NFL trend of forcing diaper donning qbs into duty continues. Go Birds!
Matt Skoufalos
10:04 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
McCoy does have an awesome name, but I don't think it's fair to say he's completely useless just yet. The NFL QB position is a tough, tough, tough one to master. Look how long it's taken Alex Smith—rather, until he met up with his Harbaugh—to put together a winning season. And in the "what have you done for me lately" league, he was about to be dumped mercilessly for Peyton Manning this off-season. Now that team has to swing back around and tell him, "heyyyyy guy, you're gonna be great this year!" Along with NHL goalie, MLB relief pitcher, and NBA outside shooting specialist, it's the toughest position to have in sports.
Porterincollingswood
7:47 am on Monday, July 9, 2012
Depends on the scenario.
If Vick goes down in week 2 and is out for the season, it doesn't matter who the backup is...Kafka or Foles or Edwards. The season is probably over.
But if we're 8-3 and Vick goes down for 6 weeks, we need more than a project / rookie / journeyman to get us into the playoffs until Vick comes back.
I'd rather have a C- guy who's been tested and has a proven (mediocre) track record in a system similar to Andy's compared to a C+ guy who's never been through the fire.
McCoy is only one example, there a a few veteran guys hanging out there who realize they are on the downside but want a few more years in the show. Just not McNabb, please.
Mike Diviney
2:21 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Rough on McCoy- you might be right, but we don't have to find out here. Trent Edwards seems to be done and Foles seems likely to need a year or 2 of seasoning. I'd like a veteran, but Kafka- or anyone else- has to be better than Vince Young.
Mike Diviney
10:51 pm on Sunday, July 8, 2012
I don't think McCoy's useless, I just don't think he's appreciably better than Kafka. Obviously, McCoy hasn't impressed Holmgren that much in Cleveland. So, I think he'll probably be a competent backup in the NFL, but he can do it in Cleveland and we can roll with Kafka and be better off just because he's already here.
Alonzo Mosley
10:42 am on Monday, July 9, 2012
I say let Vick go out and play his game but Andy should be ready to pull him if he doesn't protect the ball. He's got to or the Eagles are going to loose. I also think if we could get McCoy cheap, we need to. I like what I see in McCoy.
Mike Diviney
2:22 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Wow, this McCoy debate rages on. Let's stick to Vick. A McCoy not named Lesean is immaterial. Let's roll with what we got. Edwards-Kafka is the relevant question right now.
Sixto Lezcano
10:46 am on Monday, July 9, 2012
I hope Vick realizes he does not have to be THE man and that he needs to rely on his teammates. Shady is a monster, and look for D-Jax to bounce back. Maclin will be healthy from the get go. If Vick understands that those guys have equal share in moving the ball maybe he won't throw as many picks or fumble as often. As you said, turnover margin is critical.
Mike Diviney
2:25 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Yeah, he lost several fumbles last year as well. I agree and that's what he did in 2010. He's go so many weapons to work with. That year he sat in the pocket and found those guys all day long. When the sh*t hit the fan against the Giants, he threw caution to the wind and ran and threw like the season depended on it because it did. Long as he picks his spots, they're good.
Izel Jenkins
10:48 am on Monday, July 9, 2012
You’re giving Kafka too much credit…he’s terrible, and they know it. Which is why they drafted and signed a veteran backup....HOLN
Mike Diviney
2:26 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Toast? I don't think he's terrible at all. Let's all focus on Vick for now and the backup later.
Phil McConkey
1:23 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
You guys just need to ask yourself "Are these back up QB's as good as Jeff Hostettler?" He was a backup that won a Superbowl
Matt Skoufalos
1:54 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
So was Tom Brady
Mike Diviney
2:28 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Big Giants fan who doesn't even know how to spell Hostetler. EXPOSED as a fraud.
Phil McConkey
2:44 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Only 7 back ups have won a SB. If you include Brady as a future hall of famer then 3 of the 7 are Hall of Famers and a 4th is Jim Plunkett who should be. I don't think there are any HOF backups on the Eagles roster. The 3 that are not -Doug Williams, Trent Dilfer (Giants were in but lost that one and I'm not crying about it) and HOS (Giants win)
Matt Skoufalos
2:52 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Where do you put Kurt Warner on that list?
Phil McConkey
3:06 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
he's not on the list. That list are QB's who started the season as a backup. Warner took over in the preseason and was named starter from Day 1
Matt Skoufalos
3:15 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Fair point; couldn't recall when he was given the keys.
Mike Diviney
2:30 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Great point on Brady. Poor point on misspelled Hoss. That's so rare that we should just figure if Vick goes down for the year, we're done. If he goes out for a few games, we need a backup who can allow the Eagles to survive that stretch- they had that in 2010, not in 2011. More focus needs to be on Vick for now, not who the backup might be.
Reed Rothchild
3:36 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
So if VIck goes down for the year and "we're done" what does that do as far as Andy Reid's job stability? Does he get ANOTHER year since he'll have an excuse that his QB got hurt? I don't think he deserves it. A "top tier" coach, with his amount of control, should not be in that position. Hopefully it's a non-issue, but if Vick goes down and that's the scapegoat all season then Reid can take a hike out of Philly! Again, HOPEFULLY it's a non-issue, but if it is...see ya Andy. (I also think it's just a matter of time before Andy chokes on his 4th dinner or has another health related issue of his own causing him to pass the mic)
Porterincollingswood
4:02 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Andy is coach for life, he helped Lurie make millions and millions and his floor is probably 5-11. So the fans stay interested, the season ticket waiting list stays long, and aside from some unhappy callers on WIP and the Phanatic there are no negatives for Jeff.
An NFL team makes most of its cash through TV and NFL merchandise, which they share. So even if the fans stopped coming, the team would make a healthy profit.
Mike Diviney
4:31 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
What was the first health-related issue Reid had? Far as his stability if he loses Vick. Hate to tell you, any coach who loses his starting QB for a long time gets a PASS!
Phil McConkey
5:06 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
I think the Eagles can opt out of Vick's contract after this season. Pretty sure it's after 2012 but may be 2013 So let's say Vick gets hurt and the Eagles opt out, I don't think you have to bring Andy back then? Do you still give him one more year with a new QB? or do you move in a different direction?
Porterincollingswood
5:15 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Not only can, but almost certainly will. The contract value escalates after this season from $12.5M up to $16.5M (may go down $1M if he doesn't reach certain goals, probably games played given his injury history).
The guaranteed money was also front-loaded, so they don't get killed cap-wise if they cut him loose. All in all, a pretty well-designed contract for both parties.
Mike Diviney
4:33 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Porter: Jeff loves Andy because he keeps fans coming to the games which makes Jeff money.
Porter: Even if no fans come to the game, Jeff makes the same money.
Huh?
Porterincollingswood
5:04 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
I said he makes money. Not "same" or "more".
He won't go in the red if people stopped coming, that's the beauty of the NFL.
Fabiola Et
4:35 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Great article, nice job!
Mike Diviney
4:36 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
You can't look at a team and say their current QB won't make the HOF so they won't win a Superbowl- too much unknown info. If Vick were to win a Superbowl, he would make the HOF, but it's immaterial because it's unknown. You have to let it play out.
Mike Diviney
4:37 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Not sure that Kurt Warner was starter from Day1 that year, but I think you're right.
Kurt Warner is a Hall of Famer HANDS DOWN!
Porterincollingswood
5:05 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
Trent Green was the starter that year, got hurt in training camp and Warner was named the team starter in a tear-filled Vermeil press conference.
Mike Diviney
7:10 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
One of many tear-filled Vermeil pressers. I think the Warner season in question was 2008 with the Cards, but I could be wrong.
You're right, no NFL owner can really go in the red from owning a franchise.
Mike Diviney
7:15 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
They can't "opt-out" of the contract, but they gave themselves an obvious out after 2 years. I believe because the "signing bonus" is converted to a roster bonus from the 3rd year forward, meaning if they didn't want to pay it they could cut him with no negative cap repercussions.
Baumer
8:52 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
This season will definitely all come down to Mike Vick. The defense has improved immensely and will be solid, if not spectacular. They're not going to lose five 4th quarter leads again so a lot of these games are going to rely on the arms and legs (and health) of Vick. He'll never learn to slide. He can say whatever he wants about being smarter but when he's in the moment he'll always go for that extra yardage. Let's just hope none of his injuries (because he will get hurt) are season threatening. I think if he misses 3 or less games then the Birds are back in the playoffs.
Mike Diviney
10:26 pm on Monday, July 9, 2012
I agree with EVERY point you made. He will get dinged, but if it's relatively minor like the last 2 seasons have been- about 3 games each- they should be able to weather that storm. However, we tend to forget that last season, he missed the end of the Atlanta game and the end of the Giants game- both of which were losses and probably would not have been had he been in there. As always, we'll see...
Jono
6:18 pm on Tuesday, July 10, 2012
I don't trust Vick to be smart enough to protect either the ball or himself from injury. Yet another reason to establish the run - get the ball out of his hands.
Mike Diviney
1:59 pm on Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Agree with establishing a running game, which they have done a better job of- see Shady's production last year. However, if their goal is to get the ball out of their playmaking QB's hands, they have problems too big to overcome. I have some misgivings about Vick, but have to admit he's a playmaker. You have to acknowledge what he did in 2010; hanging in the pocket, firing strikes downfield, running when he had to, and get him back to that. It's on the coaches to do so.
Larry O'Doyle
10:08 pm on Tuesday, July 10, 2012
I agree with Reed Rothchild concerning the gross negligence Andy and the front office will be guilty of if Vick goes down and they don't have a legitimate Plan B. Everyone knows he will miss games, the question is how many. As evidenced last year, the difference between one win and one loss determines your ultimate fate more often than not. In today's NFL, preparation for worst case scenario is a requirement not a luxury. There are NO free passes! Just ask all the former employees of last year's Colts organization. Go Birds!
Mike Diviney
2:02 pm on Wednesday, July 11, 2012
You're right, but I'm not going to accuse them of "gross negligence" before it even happens. If they judge that whomever ends up as their backup can win a few games, they'll be held responsible for that when the time comes. If he can, they should be lauded. If he can't, like you said, 1 game often makes the difference, and they'll be crucified. But we're not there yet.
Christian Giudice
6:48 pm on Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Great point about how teams figured out and adapted to Vick. It is alarming how quickly he went from as you said "miraculous" to "pedestrian." Thanks for the article, can't wait to check out the next one.
Mike Diviney
7:01 pm on Wednesday, July 11, 2012
All about getting him back to what we saw in 2010. Big Red has to figure out how to adjust to the adjustments.